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Death of gas and diesel begins as GM announces plans for ‘all-electric future’

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Death of gas and diesel begins as GM announces plans for ‘all-electric future’

After nearly a century of building vehicles powered by fossil fuels, General Motors — one of the world’s largest automakers — announced Monday that the end of GM producing internal combustion engines is fast approaching.

The acceleration to an all-electric future will begin almost immediately, with GM releasing two new electric models next year and an additional 18 by 2023.

At a media event at GM’s technical campus in Warren, Mich., on Monday, Mark Reuss, the company’s chief of global product development, said the transition will take time, but the course has been set.

“General Motors believes in an all-electric future,” Reuss said. “Although that future won’t happen overnight, GM is committed to driving increased usage and acceptance of electric vehicles.”

Reuss avoided naming the year when the auto giant will cease producing gas and diesel vehicles, noting that the company is too large to make such an estimate, according to USA Today.

GM finished 2016 as the world’s third-largest auto-seller, breaking previous company records with 10 million vehicles sold, the company said in a news release.

The automaker said that arriving at a “zero emissions future” will require a two-pronged approach: battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.

At Monday’s event, Fast Company reported, officials unveiled three concepts for reporters: “a sporty crossover, a larger wagon or SUV and a tall, boxy pod car that looked like a people-mover for cities.”

GM also introduced a fuel-cell-powered heavy-duty truck with two electric motors known as Surus, or “silent utility rover universal superstructure.”

GM’s foray into the electric marketplace has already resulted in resounding success, with the Chevrolet Bolt being named Motor Trend’s 2017 Car of the Year and the 2017 North American Car of the Year. The Bolt boasts a 240-mile battery range on a single charge and costs $37,500 before tax incentives. That range places the vehicle well above the Nissan Leaf (up to 107 miles on a single charge) and slightly above Tesla’s Model 3 (up to 220 miles on a single charge for a standard battery).

As GM commits to electric innovation, the company will compete in an increasingly crowded marketplace. In recent months, Tesla unveiled the company’s first mass market electric vehicle, joining companies such as Ford, Volvo, Nissan, Aston Martin and Jaguar Land Rover, all of whom are vying for market space.

On Monday, Ford announced plans to create a group known as “Team Edison” that is to be tasked with developing fully electric cars. Sherif Marakby, Ford’s head of electrification and autonomous vehicles, told Automotive News that the company is on pace to produce 13 electrified vehicles over the next five years.

“We see an inflection point in the major markets toward battery electric vehicles,” Marakby said. “We feel it’s important to have a cross-functional team all the way from defining the strategy plans and implementation to advanced marketing.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/10/02/death-of-diesel-begins-as-gm-announces-plans-for-all-electric-future/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_innov-gm-303pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.5bf6299ec2d1

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The Bolt boasts a 240-mile battery range on a single charge and costs $37,500 before tax incentives.

:lol:

Pick any small car, 400+ mile range and less than $25K, some less than $17k.  $10k buys a hell of a lot of fuel.

What is the emissions rate on the 1000' DIESEL container ships that bring the batteries from China?

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10 ish years ago I worked at a Toyota dealer.  Prius owner loved to run around with about 20 lbs of air in their tires.  That's oblivion for ya.  And I saw one that had a coolant leak that melted down the....transformer or whatever the main electrical deal contained.  Price one of those and see how many miles you've gotta drive a hybrid to break even!   They traded for a newer Prius.  At that time I was driving my $350 diesel truck that got about 30 mpg and only need a timing belt and valve adjustment every 100k or so.

I think GM needs leadership, and being bold in the electric direction COULD pay off.   Seeing how HUGE GM used to be and what a shell of a dump they are now doesn't leave me a lot of hope.

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On 10/3/2017 at 8:35 AM, Ashley P said:

Calling electric vehicles "zero emissions" should be false advertising.

Definitely. That electricity is coming from somewhere, could be coal, could be hydro or solar, quite possibly a mix of the three.

On 10/3/2017 at 5:08 PM, Cannon Fodder said:

:lol:

Pick any small car, 400+ mile range and less than $25K, some less than $17k.  $10k buys a hell of a lot of fuel.

What is the emissions rate on the 1000' DIESEL container ships that bring the batteries from China?

I saw something recently about how terrible those container ships are in regards to emissions; I just skimmed the information, but even I thought it was quite significant.

If I could get 300-350 miles out of an electric vehicle, I could see it being reasonable as long as it was priced in line with gasoline vehicles, my fear is that they would no longer be fun, but by the time they take hold, I'll be too old to care about fun.

If everyone drove XYZ electric car, drag racing would simply come down to milliseconds worth of driver response time on hitting the accelerator, then we would complain that there is lag in our electrical system that caused our pedal to react slower... not to self: be first on the market with EV sport grounding kit.

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2 hours ago, djoye said:

Definitely. That electricity is coming from somewhere, could be coal, could be hydro or solar, quite possibly a mix of the three.

I saw something recently about how terrible those container ships are in regards to emissions; I just skimmed the information, but even I thought it was quite significant.

If I could get 300-350 miles out of an electric vehicle, I could see it being reasonable as long as it was priced in line with gasoline vehicles, my fear is that they would no longer be fun, but by the time they take hold, I'll be too old to care about fun.

If everyone drove XYZ electric car, drag racing would simply come down to milliseconds worth of driver response time on hitting the accelerator, then we would complain that there is lag in our electrical system that caused our pedal to react slower... not to self: be first on the market with EV sport grounding kit.

I don't think the current power generation and electrical infrastructure could handle the demand if all cars went 100% electric.

My cousin could probably chime in and tell us his educated opinion since he is an engineer out in east TN at TVA.

tim.jpg

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On 11/30/2017 at 8:37 PM, JohnC said:

I don't think the current power generation and electrical infrastructure could handle the demand if all cars went 100% electric.

My cousin could probably chime in and tell us his educated opinion since he is an engineer out in east TN at TVA.

Well, it's obviously not going to happen overnight. I bet in 1880 some jerk was writing to the editor of the paper that if every house went 100% electric that the grid would shut down. The world can adjust to the EV. 

 

@djoye, We can still hot rod them. Just think, we start putting in larger wires, higher torque motors, stronger batteries, Big wings and **** just how you like em. Does anybody hop up their Electric RC cars or do they all just drive in a circle at 3mph bored out of their minds? Also, we need to meet up again soon. You coming to the Winter Onederland Party on the 16th?

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^ My electric drag car won't have heavy batteries. I'll follow Nikola's (Tesla) lead and go wireless.  The car hauler will have some massive diesel generators and a focused broadcast antenna.

This message will self destruct in 5 seconds...

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3 hours ago, Disney said:

 

@djoye, We can still hot rod them. Just think, we start putting in larger wires, higher torque motors, stronger batteries, Big wings and **** just how you like em. Does anybody hop up their Electric RC cars or do they all just drive in a circle at 3mph bored out of their minds? Also, we need to meet up again soon. You coming to the Winter Onederland Party on the 16th?

You're going to need those wings as a place to mount the radiators required to cool the electrical components that are gonna be at risk of getting fried because more than spec voltage is being pushed through them! I can see it now, this is the future of electric cars...
 

gRI3NLN.png

I don't know anything about Winter Onederland.

Edited by djoye
Gotta get this picture in here!
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6 hours ago, Disney said:

Well, it's obviously not going to happen overnight.

Of course we can upgrade over time. :lol:

But that initial hit would be causing power grid blackouts in some places. I guarantee it. :yes:

 

 

 

 

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https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/odds-future-major-battery-storage-improvement-ever-increasing-sp

 

 

Odds of future major battery storage improvement ‘ever increasing’: S&P

 

November 21, 2017

 

Paul Ciampoli

 

While saying that “we remain far and possibly decades away from a battery technological breakthrough that stores energy for weeks at a time,” S&P Global Ratings also argues in a recent report that the odds of a future major battery improvement are “ever increasing.”

 

This reflects the rising research and development costs that companies and government entities are investing “in addition to the diverse projects they're undertaking to advance batteries and energy storage,” S&P said in the Nov. 3 report, “Future Shock: Will Better Batteries Dim Electric Utilities’ Prospects?”

 

The report offers examples of specific projects and investments in the area of battery technology. For example, Tesla Inc. boosted its research and development costs by more than 40% annually since 2010. The company's approximate $5 billion investment in its lithium-ion battery Gigafactory, which is currently under construction in Nevada, has the potential to further reduce the cost of this battery type through advancements and improved efficiencies in both battery production and capability, the rating agency noted.

 

“Additionally, the company is building the largest battery project to date with capacity of about 100 MW,” S&P said.

 

Also, companies such as Panasonic Corp., Johnson Controls Inc., and LG Chem Ltd. collectively continue to invest billions in the battery industry.

 

The federal government is also playing a role in the area of battery investment and research. S&P noted that the Department of Energy continues to invest about $80 million annually in energy storage technology, including batteries.

 

New battery technologies

 

Meanwhile, S&P said that while the lithium-ion battery is the predominant battery type used today, “researchers are developing many other technologies that could ultimately be cheaper and more effective than the lithium-ion battery. The end result may provide customers with an affordable, efficient, and portable way to store energy for weeks.”

 

New battery technologies could come in the form of advanced hydrogen-bromine flow batteries, lithium-air batteries, molten metal batteries, saltwater batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and zinc-air batteries, the report said.

 

For now, lithium-ion storage continues to be the dominant battery storage technology used in the U.S. A September 2017 ESA/GTM report (U.S. Energy Storage Monitor) on second quarter 2017 storage activity said that lithium-ion batteries dominated the energy storage market for the eleventh straight quarter, holding 94.2% of the market in the second quarter.

 

Not all utilities are expected to face the same risks

 

Even if there is a technological breakthrough in batteries, resulting in reduced prospects for regulated utilities, “we don't expect all utilities will necessarily face the same risks,” S&P said.

 

“First, utilities will have time to adapt to this new reality, and we expect that the better management teams will reduce risk by gradually decreasing the size of their generation portfolio, investing in battery solutions, or other advanced technologies, reducing their operations and maintenance costs. This will drive down their cost to deliver electricity, marketing the utility as an affordable and reliable competitor to the new distributed generation system,” the report said.

 

Moreover, S&P believes that transmission and distribution only utilities will be less affected. “Even with a battery technological breakthrough, most customers would prefer to pay a competitively priced monthly fee to have the utility as a backup in the event of a very cloudy month or a mishap with the battery. Our lives today are so dependent on electricity that few would be willing to risk the potential consequences of living, even for a short while, without electricity,” the rating agency said.

 

The report argues that “generally risk-averse U.S. households conservatively maintaining a competitively priced backup for their power would be similar to the story of the significantly less critical landline phone.” While wireless phones have become ubiquitous, “nearly 50% of U.S. households have retained their landline phone,” S&P points out.

 

Most vulnerable utilities

 

S&P said that utilities most vulnerable to a battery technological breakthrough would be fully integrated utilities located in areas with above-average sun strength, serving customers with above-average incomes.

 

“These utilities would initially be most susceptible to declines in electricity sales given the desire of customers in sunny areas to take advantage of this improved power source and their ability to afford the steep upfront costs of installing an enhanced distributed generation system,” the report said.

 

Based on states identified in the report, S&P identifies U.S. utilities (all investor-owned) that it thinks could face increased risk if there was a battery technological breakthrough. One caveat noted by the rating agency is although the list includes all three of California's large electric utilities, “these utilities have been proactive in managing their generation supply commitments, moving their utilities closer to a T&D-only model.”

 

The utilities that could face heightened risk from a battery technological breakthrough are:

•Arizona Public Service

•Black Hills Energy (Colorado, Wyoming)

•Public Service Co. of Colorado

•El Paso Electric (Texas)

•Entergy Texas

•Hawaiian Electric Co.

•NV Energy (Nevada)

•PacifiCorp (Utah, Wyoming)

•Pacific Gas & Electric (California)

•San Diego Gas & Electric (California)

•Southern California Edison

 

Risk to utility sector more than 10 years away

 

“Our long-term view incorporates our assumptions that a breakthrough in battery technology remains years away, possibly more than the next decade,” S&P said. “Furthermore, even after a technological breakthrough, battery adoption may be somewhat slower compared to other technological breakthroughs.”

 

The rating agency said that this resistance “reflects society's dependence on quality and reliable electricity and our expectation that individuals--risk averse to power outages caused by technical failures--would be less likely to adopt early and completely.”

 

In addition, S&P said “it is possible that utilities may modify their business model, forestalling such competition. On these premises, we believe the risk to the utility industry is more than 10 years away.”

 

The American Public Power Association plans to publish a paper focused on energy storage this winter.

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